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Joe Gavazzi’s FOOTBALL POINTSPREAD PROGNOSIS
60% Winners for $1/selection
I write the Pointspread Prognosis for myself, as well as for you! It is a great way for me to summarize the thoughts I have, and the research I have done for games of the current week. My goal is to make the analysis for each game a blend of fundamental, statistical, situational and technical handicapping. By the nature of the fact there are “Name Games”, one area of handicapping usually dominates in the written analysis. Regardless of that fact, it is tough to argue with the success of the games, especially on the collegiate level where 60% of the games, 202-135 ATS, have cashed in the L2Y.
This year, I add a 14 th College game to the LUCKY 13. It is the “Penthouse Pick”, a nod to the name of my 1 st Late Phone Selections when I resided in the Penthouse of the Parklane Apartments. It was the highest point in what is now Pittsburgh’s trendy East End.
I hope you profit from, and enjoy the read of our Pointspread Prognosis. You may not choose to play each game. From time to time, those of my more contrary selections may serve to save you money. With an Annual Subscription, the selections are priced at $1/game in the Regular Season ($2 in the Bowls & Playoffs!) MAKING THEM AFFORDABLE TO ALL, AND THE BEST BANG FOR YOUR BUCK IN THE SPORTS SERVICE INDUSTRY.
Here’s to another great winning season.
THE 14 WEEKLY COLLEGE FOOTBALL “NAMED GAMES” OF
JOE GAVAZZI’S CFB POINTSPREAD PROGNOSIS
STEAMROLLER OF THE WEEK…
Entering its 30th year, this is a selection in which I isolate our team’s (usually a favorite) dominance over their opponent at the point of attack. I use the respective team’s statistics of rushing and yards/rush to make my point in a game that has cashed nearly 60% of the time since its inception on these pages.
CRUSHER OF THE WEEK…
Much like the Steamroller above, this is almost always a favorite play. Along with statistical support, my preferred team may also be motivated by a “reason to play” (revenge, bounceback or opponent letdown) creating a situational advantage.
IF IT AIN’T BROKE…
This is the momentum play of the week in which I use current form of each team to suggest that the momentum of both teams will continue. It is normally backed by a blend of additional reasoning, including fundamental or technical support.
This is the 4th of what is normally a favorite play in the Pointspread Prognosis each week. Due to a number of converging factors, I believe it is a contest in which one team’s fans will be getting their “cheap thrills” (on the scoreboard and in the ATS column) as their favorite eleven runs up the score on an outmanned foe.
FAUX OR FO’ REAL…
Each week, the handicapper is faced with the conundrum of whether a team will repeat its outstanding performance of last week (GOOD OR BAD) and play to the same form of last week (FO’ REAL). Or was last week’s performance not truly representative (FAUX) of the team who will show up this week. This is a major test of a handicappers ability to analyze a team’s mental and emotional state, and one I often pass with flying colors.
Every week in the season, we can watch a game in which one team comes out smokin’ hot and puts away their opponent in the first half. I call this an ICE game as the dominant team is playing with Intensity, Conviction and Execution. For whatever reason, maybe because they are playing with revenge, or are off an embarrassing loss, this team has come to play. It is my job to tell you who that team is.
RIVALRY GAME/FORTRESS GAME…
With 130 teams on line, there is always one game each week that will either match a pair of fierce rivals, OR FIND AN INFERIOR TEAM playing to defend their turf on their strong home field. You will read about it and profit from it.
This winner normally comes from the stat sheet of last week or the recent weeks of play. It is a game where one team is off a win (S) or loss (ES) in which the stats simply do not accurately reflect the outcome of the game. In other words, the public’s perception, as reflected in the linemakers send out, is quite opposite from the reality of the team’s performance. We profit from the attendant value.
THE LONE RANGER…
This is the contrary play of the week. Normally an underdo, it features a team that no one wants to play on, or against a team with whom the public has fallen in love. In reality, the inferior team is due for a bounce back. Or the superior team is due for a letdown. In short, it is the reverse of a momentum play. We step in and grab the value with a selection on a game in which upsets are often born.
UNDER THE RADAR…
There are now 130 on line teams in CFB. Meaning at least 50 on line games each week! With the betting public and linemaker, focusing on the games from the major conferences, there is always at least one game that flies “under the radar” from the public’s perception. That is when I step in for a game whose winner pays off just as much as if it were a Top 10 team.
Not unlike the “Under the Radar” game above, this is normally a game which isolates a team whose results in the ATS column have not been representative of how well or how poorly they have been playing in the stats. When these games show up on the schedule, there is almost always plenty of value for this side who will have little interest from the public.
PUPPY OF THE WEEK…
Each week I isolate a small underdog who I believe to be the better team or perhaps who has a huge situational advantage. These underdogs have a history of stealing the money and often times win this game outright. Since you have read my analysis, you are aware this is not really an upset.
BIG DOG OF THE WEEK…
Every week I select an underdog from the CFB card of more than 7 points. I may become alerted to it by a statistical advantage such as a superior defense. Or maybe its an edge in the running game at the point of attack. Often it would be in conjunction with a bounceback or letdown situation for one or both teams. Regardless of the factors involved, it is more often than not a winner. Do not ignore this play because you “love” the favorite.
PENTHOUSE PICK… This year, I am adding a 14th selection, the Penthouse Pick to our Lucky 13. It is a reflection to the past when the games were released from the Penthouse offices, the highest point in what is now the trendy East End of Pittsburgh. Annually, the selections are as lofty as the altitude from which they are released.
202-135 L2Y CFB
37-28 (57%) L5W
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